METHODOLOGY
Forecasting Methodology
A good forecast combines clean data, historical insight, market context and business judgment.
1
Diagnostic & Historical Analysis
Understand trends, seasonality, volatility and structural change.
2
Data Clean-Up & Isolation
Improve quality and separate signals with different behavior.
3
Outlier Normalization
Identify exceptional events and non-recurring noise.
4
Statistical Forecast
Create an objective baseline using level, trend and seasonality.
5
Commercial Review & Consensus Adjustment
Add customer forecasts, CPFR, promotions, launches, pricing activity, market events, risks and opportunities.